Development of machine learning models for detection of vision threatening Behçet's disease (BD) using Egyptian College of Rheumatology (ECR)-BD cohort.

BACKGROUND: Eye lesions, occur in nearly half of patients with Behçet's Disease (BD), can lead to irreversible damage and vision loss; however, limited studies are available on identifying risk factors for the development of vision-threatening BD (VTBD). Using an Egyptian college of rheumatology (ECR)-BD, a national cohort of BD patients, we examined the performance of machine-learning (ML) models in predicting VTBD compared to logistic regression (LR) analysis. We identified the risk factors for the development of VTBD. METHODS: Patients with complete ocular data were included. VTBD was determined by the presence of any retinal disease, optic nerve involvement, or occurrence of blindness. Various ML-models were developed and examined for VTBD prediction. The Shapley additive explanation value was used for the interpretability of the predictors. RESULTS: A total of 1094 BD patients [71.5% were men, mean ± SD age 36.1 ± 10 years] were included. 549 (50.2%) individuals had VTBD. Extreme Gradient Boosting was the best-performing ML model (AUROC 0.85, 95% CI 0.81, 0.90) compared with logistic regression (AUROC 0.64, 95%CI 0.58, 0.71). Higher disease activity, thrombocytosis, ever smoking, and daily steroid dose were the top factors associated with VTBD. CONCLUSIONS: Using information obtained in the clinical settings, the Extreme Gradient Boosting identified patients at higher risk of VTBD better than the conventional statistical method. Further longitudinal studies to evaluate the clinical utility of the proposed prediction model are needed.

Assessment of Lupus Nephritis in a Multicenter Retrospective Egyptian Cohort: Initial Characteristics, Influence of Age and Gender, Outcome, and Potential Association with Disease Damage.

The study aimed to evaluate the association of demographic, clinical, and histopathologic characteristics with renal and disease outcomes. Persistent lack of partial or complete remission despite sequential induction therapy, chronic kidney disease (CKD) or endstage renal disease (ESRD), and/or mortality were determined as poor renal outcomes. Disease damage was investigated through the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/ American College of Rheumatology Damage Index (SDI). Of 201 biopsy-proven lupus nephritis patients, a poor outcome was present in 56 (27.9%) patients, with nine (4.5%), 22 (10.9%), and 29 (14.4%) patients demonstrating lack of response, CKD, and ESRD, respectively, and the prevalence of mortality was 5.5% (11/201). The outcome was poor among males [29/201 (14.4%)] [P = 0.008; odds ratio (OR): 2.8; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2-6.4], yet comparable between adult- and juvenile-onset patients [80/201 (39.8%) (≤16 years)] (P = 0.6; OR: 0.8; 95% CI: 0.4-1.6). Hypertension (P <0.001; OR: 6.3; 95% CI: 2.6-14.9), elevated creatinine (P <0.001; OR: 5.2; 95% CI: 2.6-10.3), and hematuria (P <0.001; OR: 3.7; 95% CI: 1.9-7.5) at presentation, and fibrinoid necrosis [P <0.001; odds ratio (OR): 4.1; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1-8.1], wire loops (P = 0.006; OR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.2-4.6), crescents (P <0.001; OR: 5.4 95% CI: 2.8-10.5), interstitial fibrosis (P = 0.001; OR: 2.7; 95% CI: 1.4-5.1), and acute vascular lesions (P = 0.004; OR: 3.6; 95% CI: 1.4-9.4) on biopsy were associated with a poor outcome. Chronic glomerular (P = 0.003) and acute vascular lesions (P <0.001), and a higher chronicity index (r = 0.1; P = 0.006) on biopsy, and frequent renal (r = 0.3; P <0.001) and extra-renal flares (r = 0.2; P <0.001) were associated with higher SDI scores. Among the studied renal and extra-renal parameters, independent predictors of higher disease damage solely included frequent renal flares (ᵝ= 1; P <0.001). To conclude, a poor renal outcome (27.9%) was associated with distinct features. Disease damage was associated with frequent renal flares.

Systemic lupus erythematosus children in Egypt: Homeland spectrum amid the global situation.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to present the manifestations of juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (JSLE) across Egypt, to focus on age at onset and gender-driven influence on disease characteristics, and to compare findings to other countries. METHODS: The study included 404 Egyptian children with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) presenting to one of the specialized rheumatology centers corresponding to 13 major governorates. Juvenile cases age was ≤ 16°years at the time of recruitment. The SLE Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI) and damage index (DI) were assessed. RESULTS: The mean age was 13.2 ± 2.4°years; 355 females and 49 males (7.2:1), and the disease duration was 2.3 ± 1.6 years, while age at disease onset was 11.1 ± 2.5°years. Their SLEDAI was 13.5 ± 12.3, and DI, 0.36 ± 0.78. The overall estimated prevalence of childhood-SLE patients in the recruited cohort in Egypt was 1/100,000 population (0.24/100000 males and 1.8/100000 females). 7.4% developed pre-pubertal SLE (≤ 7 years); 73.3%, peri-pubertal; and 19.3% during early adolescence. The differences according to age group were equal for gender and clinical manifestations except skin lesions present in 59.3% of pre-pubertal onset, 74.6% of peri-pubertal, and 84.2% of adolescents (p = 0.029), and renal involvement in 73.8% of peripubertal, 62.1% of pre-pubertal and 58.9% of adolescents (p = 0.03). Laboratory investigations, SLEDAI, and DI were similar among age categories. Lupus nephritis was more common in Egypt compared to JSLE from other countries. CONCLUSION: Our large multicenter study identified that female gender influenced disease characteristics with more frequent skin involvement. Skin lesions were significantly higher in adolescents, while renal involvement in peri-pubertal children.

Rheumatology university faculty opinion on coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) vaccines: the vaXurvey study from Egypt.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the present work was to explore the perspectives of Egyptian Rheumatology staff members as regards the coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) vaccine. METHODS: The survey is composed of 25 questions. Some questions were adapted from the global rheumatology alliance COVID-19 survey for patients. RESULTS: 187 rheumatology staff members across Egypt from 18 universities and authorizations actively participated with a valid response. The mean time needed to complete the survey was 17.7 ± 13 min. Participants were 159 (85%) females (F:M 5.7:1). One-third agreed that they will be vaccinated once available, 24.6% have already received at least one dose, 29.4% are unsure while 16% will not take it. Furthermore, 70.1% agreed that they will recommend it to the rheumatic diseases (RD) patients once available, 24.1% are not sure while 5.9% will not recommend it. RD priority to be vaccinated against COVID-19 in descending order include SLE (82.9%), RA (55.1%), vasculitis (51.3%), systemic sclerosis (39.6%), MCTD (31.6%), Behcet's disease (28.3%). The most common drugs to be avoided before vaccination included biologics (71.7%), DMARDs (44.4%), biosimilars (26.7%), IVIg (17.1%) and NSAIDs (9.1%). CONCLUSIONS: The results of the study and specifically the low rate of acceptability are alarming to Egyptian health authorities and should stir further interventions to reduce the levels of vaccine hesitancy. As rheumatic disease patients in Egypt were not systematically provided with the vaccine till present, making the vaccine available could as well enhance vaccine acceptance. Further studies to investigate any possible side effects, on a large scale of RD patients are warranted.

Development and validation of a Behçet's Disease Damage Index for adults with BD: An Explicit, Composite and Rated (ECR) tool.

BACKGROUND: Behçet's disease (BD) is a chronic multisystem variable vessel vasculitis. Disease damage is irreversible and permanent. Validated tools evaluating damage are limited. Enhancements in the clinical treatment of vasculitis will take place from the development of refined and exclusive indices for individual vasculitic syndromes including BD and attempting their international validation. OBJECTIVES: This aim was to develop and validate a simple BD Damage Index (BDI). METHODS: This was a nationwide study including 1252 BD patients. The work consisted of 3 stages. Stage 1: items generation for score content. Stage 2: items selection for the draft score was performed by an expert rheumatologist. Stage 3: the content validity of the draft score was assessed and BDI, Vasculitis Damage Index (VDI), Antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated Vasculitis Index of Damage (AVID) and Combined Damage Assessment Index (CDAI) were calculated and compared. RESULTS: The mean age of the BD patients was 36.1 ± 9.9 years. Stages 1 and 2 resulted in a BDI instrument containing 73 items with a maximum score of 100. Stage 3, the VDI, CDAI, AVID, and BDI were 2.9 ± 2.2, 3.1 ± 2.3, 3.1 ± 2.3 and 5.1 ± 2.9, respectively. High correlations (r = .9) between comparable damage scores assured acceptable concurrent validity. CONCLUSION: The proposed BDI represents a new robust and potentially useful tool when dealing with BD chronic status.

Anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA in the SLICC classification criteria dataset.

OBJECTIVE: Anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA is a common isotype of anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I in SLE. Anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I was not included in the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) SLE classification criteria, but was included in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) criteria. We aimed to evaluate the prevalence of anti-beta 2-glycoprotein I IgA in SLE versus other rheumatic diseases. In addition, we examined the association between anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA and disease manifestations in SLE. METHODS: The dataset consisted of 1384 patients, 657 with a consensus physician diagnosis of SLE and 727 controls with other rheumatic diseases. Anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I isotypes were measured by ELISA. Patients with a consensus diagnosis of SLE were compared to controls with respect to presence of anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I. Among patients with SLE, we assessed the association between anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA and clinical manifestations. RESULTS: The prevalence of anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA was 14% in SLE patients and 7% in rheumatic disease controls (odds ratio, OR 2.3, 95% CI: 1.6, 3.3). It was more common in SLE patients who were younger patients and of African descent (p = 0.019). Eleven percent of SLE patients had anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA alone (no anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgG or IgM). There was a significant association between anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA and anti-dsDNA (p = 0.001) and the other antiphospholipid antibodies (p = 0.0004). There was no significant correlation of anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA with any of the other ACR or SLICC clinical criteria for SLE. Those with anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA tended to have a history of thrombosis (12% vs 6%, p = 0.071), but the difference was not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: We found the anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA isotype to be more common in patients with SLE and in particular, with African descent. It could occur alone without other isotypes.

Adult systemic lupus erythematosus in Egypt: The nation-wide spectrum of 3661 patients and world-wide standpoint.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to present the epidemiology, clinical manifestations and treatment pattern of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in Egyptian patients over the country and compare the findings to large cohorts worldwide. Objectives were extended to focus on the age at onset and gender driven influence on the disease characteristics. PATIENTS AND METHOD: This population-based, multicenter, cross-sectional study included 3661 adult SLE patients from Egyptian rheumatology departments across the nation. Demographic, clinical, and therapeutic data were assessed for all patients. RESULTS: The study included 3661 patients; 3296 females and 365 males (9.03:1) and the median age was 30 years (17-79 years), disease duration 4 years (0-75 years) while the median age at disease onset was 25 years (4-75 years). The overall estimated prevalence of adult SLE in Egypt was 6.1/100,000 population (1.2/100,000 males and 11.3/100,000 females).There were 316 (8.6%) juvenile-onset (Jo-SLE) and 3345 adult-onset (Ao-SLE). Age at onset was highest in South and lowest in Cairo (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: SLE in Egypt had a wide variety of clinical and immunological manifestations, with some similarities with that in other nations and differences within the same country. The clinical characteristics, autoantibodies and comorbidities are comparable between Ao-SLE and Jo-SLE. The frequency of various clinical and immunological manifestations varied between gender. Additional studies are needed to determine the underlying factors contributing to gender and age of onset differences.

Hydroxychloroquine Blood Levels Predict Hydroxychloroquine Retinopathy.

OBJECTIVE: In 2016, the American Academy of Ophthalmology (AAO) changed the recommended daily dose of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) from 6.5 mg/kg to <5 mg/kg. However, it is not clear that the lower prescribed dose of HCQ will have the same efficacy for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) activity or the same role in protecting against cardiovascular risk factors and thrombosis. This study was undertaken to address the frequency of HCQ retinopathy and the role of HCQ blood levels in identifying those individuals who are at a greater future risk of retinopathy. METHODS: HCQ blood levels in 537 patients with SLE from a large clinical cohort were repeatedly measured, and patients were tested for HCQ retinopathy. We assessed the risk of retinopathy according to clinical characteristics and blood levels of HCQ. RESULTS: The overall frequency of retinopathy was 4.3% (23 of 537 patients). There was a 1% risk of retinopathy in the first 5 years of HCQ treatment, 1.8% from 6 to 10 years, 3.3% from 11 to 15 years, 11.5% from 16 to 20 years, and 8.0% after 21 years of use. We found that older age (P < 0.0001), higher body mass index (P for trend = 0.0160), and longer duration of HCQ intake (P = 0.0024 and P for trend = 0.0006) were associated with a higher risk of HCQ toxicity. Higher blood levels of HCQ predicted later HCQ retinopathy (P = 0.0124 and P = 0.0340 for mean and maximum HCQ blood levels, respectively). CONCLUSION: Our data prove the utility of assessing blood levels of HCQ in the prediction of retinopathy. This would allow clinicians to either decrease the dose or increase monitoring in those patients with high HCQ blood levels.

Late-onset systemic lupus erythematosus: characteristics and outcome in comparison to juvenile- and adult-onset patients-a multicenter retrospective cohort.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to investigate the characteristics and outcome of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) among elderly-onset patients. METHODS: This study included 575 SLE patients managed at Cairo, Alexandria, and Helwan universities from August 2014 to 2018: of whom 49 (8.5%), 420 (73%), and 106 (18.4%) were elderly- (> 50 years), adult- (17-50 years), and juvenile- (≤ 16 years) onset patients, respectively. Cumulative characteristics were recorded. Disease activity at the last visit was investigated through the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index-2K (SLEDAI-2K), whereby lupus low disease activity (LLDA) was defined as a SLEDAI-2K score ≤ 4. The disease outcome was assessed through investigating disease damage (Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index (SDI)) and the prevalence of mortality. Quantitative and categorical data were compared using Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests, and chi-square (χ2) test, respectively. RESULTS: Late-onset SLE (LSLE) patients demonstrated the lowest prevalence of constitutional and mucocutaneous manifestations (p < 0.001), serositis (p = 0.006), nephritis (p < 0.001), neuropsychiatric involvement (p < 0.001), and hypocomplementinemia (p < 0.001), but showed the highest prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity (comorbidities ≥ 2) (p < 0.001), and positive anti-ds DNA antibodies (p < 0.001). Elderly-onset patients demonstrated the lowest SLEDAI-2K and SDI scores, achieved LLDA the most (p < 0.001), and developed any damage (SDI ≥ 1) the least (p < 0.001). The prevalence of mortality was comparable across the three age groups (p = 0.6). CONCLUSIONS: Late-onset SLE patients (8.5%) showed the lowest prevalence of major organ involvement and the highest prevalence of comorbidities, and demonstrated more favorable disease activity and damage indices.Key Points• The disease characteristics and outcome among LSLE patients are characterized by being controversial, with studies from the Middle East being limited. Our cohort constituted of 8.5% elderly-onset SLE patients-who were characterized by the lowest prevalence of major organ involvement and the lowest activity and damage indices-making the disease pattern more favorable in this age group, despite being characterized by the highest prevalence of comorbidities.

Correction to: Behçet's disease in Egypt: a multicenter nationwide study on 1526 adult patients and review of the literature.

The author wishes to correct the record and clarify that in the original version of this article in the Discussion section under "Prevalence over the country governorates" inadvertently presented incorrect data cited in the reference [30].

Behçet's disease in Egypt: a multicenter nationwide study on 1526 adult patients and review of the literature.

OBJECTIVES: The present work was conducted to estimate the prevalence of adult Behçet's disease (BD) in adult Egyptian and to study the clinical pattern and influence of age at-onset and sex on disease phenotype. Also, we investigated the spectrum of presentation and frequencies along the north-to-south gradient of the country. PATIENTS AND METHOD: The population-based, multicenter, cross-sectional study included 1526 adult BD patients from 26 specialized Egyptian rheumatology centers. Demographic, clinical, and therapeutic data are assessed for all patients. RESULTS: The mean age of patients was 35.7 ± 9.84 years, disease duration 6.58 ± 5.25 years, and age at onset 29.37 ± 8.6 years; 91 were juvenile-onset (JoBD). There were 1102 males and 424 females (M:F 2.6:1). Regarding co-morbidities, 19.92% were diabetic, and 26.05% were hypertensive. The mean body mass index was 27.57 ± 5.24 (43.1% overweight; 25.9% obese). The mean BD current activity form was 4.48 ± 4.28. Regarding the medications use, systemic steroid and colchicine were the most common drugs used (947 (90.2%) and 611 (82.7%), respectively). The overall estimated prevalence of BD in Egypt was 3.6/100,000 population being highest in the two main cities: Alexandria (15.27) and Cairo (8.72). Pathergy test was positive in 43.4%. 90.2% were receiving systemic steroids and 8.3%, biologics. Disease characteristics were comparable between JoBD and adult-onset BD cases. Central nervous system (CNS), deep venous thrombosis (DVT), and gastrointestinal (GIT) involvement were significantly higher in males (p = 0.01, p = 0.001, and p = 0.001 respectively) while joint affection (p = 0.001) and disease activity (p = 0.011) were increased in females. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides current prevalence of BD in Egypt; 3.6/100,000 with no remarkable north-to-south gradient. The sex influences the disease phenotype with the CNS, DVT, and GIT involvement are higher in males, while the joint affection and disease activity were increased in females. KEY POINTS: • The prevalence and phenotype of Behçet's disease across Egypt is presented in a multicenter nationwide study. • The potential influence of the age at onset and sex on disease phenotype is highlightened. • A review of the literature worldwide is presented allowing comparisons with studies from other nations.